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11.11.2026 01:58 PM
GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Bank of England's Hawkish Stance Limits the Pound's Decline

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GBP/USD has been moving lower for the second consecutive trading session. After recovering intraday to 1.3355 on Wednesday, the pair once again approached Tuesday's low. However, the price continues to hold above the psychological level of 1.3300. This price action reflects the influence of conflicting factors, so traders considering aggressive short positions should exercise caution.

The US dollar continues to strengthen following the release of US consumer inflation data that exceeded expectations, reaching a new November high.

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The dollar is receiving support from growing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, which is putting additional pressure on GBP/USD. Furthermore, following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday, market participants have increasingly priced in the possibility of a substantial interest rate hike at the December meeting.

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Another factor supporting the dollar is the geopolitical risk premium associated with tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as continued attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, investors continue to hope for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Washington and Tehran. Such an outcome could limit further US dollar appreciation and curb the decline in GBP/USD.

The pound sterling could also receive some support from the Bank of England's hawkish rhetoric. In particular, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli noted on Tuesday that further interest rate increases remain possible amid elevated energy prices and the resilience of the UK economy.

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Therefore, a decisive consolidation below 1.3300 would be required to confirm that the pair's recent upward movement has ended. The nearest support is located at 1.3311, which represents yesterday's low. Further downside pressure could bring the psychological level of 1.3300 into focus. A break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 1.3275.

The nearest resistance is located around 1.3350, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned. The 20-day SMA lies slightly higher. A break above this moving average would reduce selling pressure and improve the bulls' position. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into negative territory, indicating that bullish momentum remains weak.

The table below shows the percentage changes in the US dollar against major currencies over the past seven days. The US dollar recorded its strongest appreciation against the Canadian dollar.

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