Even Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's cautious stance didn't convince Bitcoin. After a small rise to about $81,600 in the Asian session on Thursday, it plunged sharply below $80,000, suggesting persistent market pressure and a possible continued decline. Ether was in the same situation and also resumed its fall. In short, the market sold the news of a pause rather than buying it.

The Fed decision looked predictable. The central bank kept the policy rate at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike, but the vote was not unanimous: 10 favored a pause, and 2—Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack—voted for a 25-bp increase. The statement upgraded the assessment of economic activity from "solid" to "strong" and removed the previous wording tying policy steps to a return of inflation to 2%. Instead, the text now says new incoming data will guide the policy stance.

Warsh's comments at the press conference were cautious but substantive. "Our responsibility is to bring inflation down," he said. He noted that financial conditions have tightened, though he stopped short of calling them tight. He added that the committee's prevailing view is that "the monetary medicine is starting to work." He described the internal debates as sober and serious—like an argument among family members. Warsh stressed he will not pre-judge future meetings and is reluctant to give forecasts outside of a crisis, and that policy did not "drive" the decision. He also reminded listeners that inflation has been above target for almost six years and that energy prices have risen again in recent weeks. September CPI was 3.7% year-on-year, with core CPI at 2.6%.

For markets, the key issue is not words but the priced path of hikes. Futures now imply roughly an 85% chance of a rate increase at the December 9 meeting, and the expected terminal rate by September 2027 approaches 4.7%. As a result, risk assets, including Bitcoin, remain under pressure. After the weak bounce to $81,600, I think Bitcoin will struggle to hold the $80,000 area; the next downside target is around $79,000. If that level fails, $78,000—where large protective options are concentrated—will be at risk, followed by the $76,540 level, which Galaxy cites as a critical boundary in its forecast. Ether, in my view, will follow the same path and test the $2,278 area.

On Bitcoin

The price is around 79,800 in a range between support at 79,800 and resistance at 80,300, with outer reference points at 79,000 below and 81,300 above. The plan centers on two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario.

I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 80,300 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 81,300, provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If a break below 79,800 fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce, targeting 80,300 initially, then 81,300.

I structure selling symmetrically. If the price breaks 79,800 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short position with a target of 79,000, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 80,300 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 79,800, then 79,000.

On Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range lies between support at 2,303 and resistance at 2,319, with outer reference points at 2,278 below and 2,341 above.

I buy a break of 2,319 to the upside with a hold above it and a target of 2,341, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break of 2,303 to the downside fails and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,319 and then 2,341.

I sell a confirmed break below 2,303 with a target of 2,278, provided the moving average is above price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 2,319 fails and price returns below, I sell the bounce, targeting 2,303 initially, then 2,278.

Both indicators are used as filters to weed out false moves, not as standalone reasons to enter early; decisions are made only after price actually confirms the specified levels.